Threat Horizon – The World in 2022

The digital and physical worlds are on an irreversible collision course. By 2022, organisations will be plunged into crisis as ruthless attackers exploit weaknesses in immature technologies and take advantage of an unprepared workforce. At the same time, natural forces will ravage infrastructure.

Political

As we approach 2022 the geopolitical landscape will become increasingly fractured. The rise of populism sweeping the globe will see a growing number of nation-states withdrawing from traditional geopolitical structures, treaties and accords. As the USA continues to show signs of isolationism, and the UK has officially withdrawn from the European Union this trend is only set to escalate. The established global political order will begin to deteriorate as instability and insecurity within domestic and international politics drive the decline of political partnerships and relationships. This uncertainty will contribute to a power vacuum that will perpetuate uncertainty across the globe.

Economic

Geopolitical instability will have a significant impact on not only domestic but also global economic practices. Markets will have a reactionary response to the volatility and uncertainty driven by protectionist policies and practices. The weaponisation of sanctions and trade embargoes will be a defining feature of economic warfare as the international economic landscape becomes increasingly fragmented and turbulent. Investment in generation-defining technology, such as AI, quantum computing and augmented reality will create significant opportunities but pose real threats to business.

Social

With the political and economic environments in turmoil, it is then no surprise that social inequality will perpetuate across developed nations. As younger generations begin to mature into adult life there will be an increasingly obvious divide between them and previous generations. This will be shaped particularly by opinions surrounding conservation on the natural world, ethical use of technology and corporate social responsibility. It will be these new generations that will begin to question established concepts of privacy and ethics but also increasingly push the boundaries of the status quo.

Technological

The rate of technological development shows no sign of slowing over the next several years, as new and emerging technologies begin to warp physical reality around us. Invasive and deceptive technologies will find their way into all aspects of everyday life, shaping our behaviours and fundamentally changing our relationships with each other. An increased dependence on 5G networks, with high speed and low latency, will be driven by an insatiable hunger for real-time data, as well as the need for network connectivity in a growing number and variety of locations.

Legal

As political, economic, social and technological factors drive global change the legal and regulatory landscape will become increasingly convoluted. A disjointed, and in certain cases, contradictory approach to legal and regulatory requirements within and between nation-states will lead to confusion and complexity for multi-nationals. Business will suffer as organisations divert more time and resources to making sense of a complex environment. Regulators will begin addressing concerns around unethical practices and use of both technologies and information in a bid to not only safeguard consumers from abusive business models but also potentially dangerous products.

Environmental

With the World Economic Forum identifying environmental factors as the top five global risks (looking at both likelihood and impact severity) in the coming years, it is no surprise that the environment will become a focal point of both conversation and action leading into 2022. The impact of extreme weather conditions across the globe will require a direct and proportionate response from governments, organisations and individual consumers. Failing to do so will have dire consequences for everyone. Extreme weather conditions pose a growing risk to not only physical and digital infrastructure but also a loss of life. Failure to consider the environment as a key component of risk and threat assessment will leave organisations open to severe scrutiny from regulators, pressure and threats from activists and adversarial actors and ultimately the elements themselves.

This blog is one part in a series of blogs based on the Threat Horizon 2022 report. In the coming weeks both myself and Daniel Norman will look to discuss the three themes and nine threats covered in the report.

ISF Members can download the Threat Horizon 2022: Digital and physical worlds collide report here.